Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,095
2 Rhode Island 143,086
3 South Dakota 140,247
4 Utah 126,373
5 Tennessee 124,077
6 Arizona 120,672
7 Iowa 117,599
8 Wisconsin 115,690
9 Nebraska 115,382
10 South Carolina 114,953
11 Oklahoma 114,354
12 New Jersey 114,270
13 Arkansas 112,895
14 Delaware 111,456
15 Alabama 110,709
16 Indiana 110,666
17 Illinois 109,085
18 Kansas 108,344
19 Florida 107,838
20 New York 107,760
21 Idaho 107,332
22 Mississippi 106,535
23 Minnesota 106,390
24 Nevada 104,945
25 Montana 104,378
26 Wyoming 103,602
27 Georgia 103,309
28 Kentucky 102,753
29 Massachusetts 102,434
30 Texas 101,707
31 Louisiana 101,072
32 Missouri 99,938
33 Michigan 98,930
34 Connecticut 97,321
35 New Mexico 96,609
36 California 95,694
37 North Carolina 95,360
38 Alaska 95,061
39 Colorado 94,301
40 Ohio 94,068
41 Pennsylvania 93,979
42 West Virginia 89,711
43 Virginia 78,973
44 Maryland 75,933
45 New Hampshire 72,419
46 District of Columbia 69,177
47 Washington 57,013
48 Puerto Rico 53,765
49 Maine 50,062
50 Oregon 47,385
51 Vermont 38,721
52 Hawaii 24,546

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Washington 202
2 West Virginia 193
3 Wyoming 173
4 Colorado 153
5 Louisiana 146
6 Idaho 125
7 Michigan 118
8 North Carolina 115
9 New Mexico 112
10 Rhode Island 101
11 Alaska 97
12 Nevada 97
13 Oregon 92
14 Florida 90
15 Mississippi 88
16 Tennessee 82
17 Texas 81
18 Kentucky 80
19 Montana 79
20 Maine 78
21 North Dakota 77
22 Illinois 76
23 Pennsylvania 76
24 Indiana 74
25 Arizona 73
26 Missouri 72
27 Kansas 68
28 Minnesota 67
29 Ohio 65
30 Utah 62
31 Arkansas 61
32 Connecticut 61
33 South Dakota 60
34 Delaware 57
35 South Carolina 57
36 Oklahoma 56
37 Wisconsin 55
38 Nebraska 53
39 Alabama 48
40 New York 47
41 Georgia 46
42 Iowa 43
43 Massachusetts 42
44 Virginia 41
45 New Hampshire 40
46 District of Columbia 34
47 Puerto Rico 34
48 California 33
49 New Jersey 33
50 Maryland 32
51 Vermont 29
52 Hawaii 23

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,942
2 New York 2,707
3 Massachusetts 2,588
4 Rhode Island 2,556
5 Mississippi 2,453
6 Arizona 2,414
7 Connecticut 2,307
8 Alabama 2,271
9 Louisiana 2,271
10 South Dakota 2,265
11 Pennsylvania 2,123
12 New Mexico 2,029
13 Michigan 2,025
14 North Dakota 2,019
15 Indiana 2,015
16 Illinois 1,977
17 Arkansas 1,930
18 Iowa 1,915
19 Georgia 1,891
20 South Carolina 1,885
21 Oklahoma 1,842
22 Nevada 1,808
23 Tennessee 1,801
24 Texas 1,776
25 Kansas 1,750
26 Florida 1,706
27 Delaware 1,704
28 Ohio 1,689
29 District of Columbia 1,602
30 California 1,594
31 Missouri 1,572
32 West Virginia 1,555
33 Kentucky 1,545
34 Montana 1,503
35 Maryland 1,494
36 Wisconsin 1,333
37 Minnesota 1,327
38 Virginia 1,305
39 North Carolina 1,244
40 Wyoming 1,242
41 Nebraska 1,228
42 Idaho 1,169
43 Colorado 1,159
44 New Hampshire 989
45 Puerto Rico 777
46 Washington 759
47 Utah 714
48 Oregon 632
49 Maine 613
50 Alaska 481
51 Vermont 408
52 Hawaii 348

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Oklahoma 31
2 New Mexico 19
3 Missouri 4
4 Michigan 3
5 Wyoming 3
6 Florida 2
7 Georgia 2
8 Kentucky 2
9 Louisiana 2
10 Mississippi 2
11 New Jersey 2
12 North Carolina 2
13 Pennsylvania 2
14 West Virginia 2
15 Alabama 1
16 Arkansas 1
17 Colorado 1
18 Connecticut 1
19 District of Columbia 1
20 Idaho 1
21 Illinois 1
22 Maine 1
23 Maryland 1
24 Minnesota 1
25 Montana 1
26 Nevada 1
27 New York 1
28 Ohio 1
29 Oregon 1
30 Puerto Rico 1
31 Rhode Island 1
32 South Carolina 1
33 South Dakota 1
34 Tennessee 1
35 Texas 1
36 Virginia 1
37 Washington 1
38 Alaska 0
39 Arizona 0
40 California 0
41 Delaware 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Indiana 0
44 Iowa 0
45 Kansas 0
46 Massachusetts 0
47 Nebraska 0
48 New Hampshire 0
49 North Dakota 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 385,349 1 99
Crowley Colorado 363,471 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,134 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,170 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,161 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,923 191 93
Richland South Carolina 113,236 981 68
York South Carolina 112,948 995 68
Orange California 85,577 2252 28
Pierce Washington 60,071 2840 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Hancock Georgia 7,922 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,592 1842 41
York South Carolina 1,370 2092 33
Richland South Carolina 1,369 2094 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,366 2098 33
Pierce Washington 758 2738 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons